Projections · tested models
Where is Kedah's economy heading?
DOSM stopped publishing district GDP after 2020. We estimate 2021–2025 for every district and project to 2030, with uncertainty ranges. The model was chosen for how accurate it proved on real data, not for how sophisticated it is.
Scenario simulator
Change each sector's growth rate, or switch on major projects, and see the effect on Kedah's GDP and every district to 2030.
Kedah GDP Projection
RM billion, constant 2015 prices
- Current trend
- P10–P90 range
Districts by growth, 2025–2030 Projection
GDP growth a year in this scenario, and GDP per person in 2030
| District | Growth a year | GDP 2030 | Per person 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kulim | 3.9% | RM15.90 bn (RM14.0 bn–RM18.1 bn) | RM42,840 |
| Langkawi | 3.9% | RM3.58 bn (RM3.1 bn–RM4.1 bn) | RM33,361 |
| Kuala Muda | 3.8% | RM16.67 bn (RM14.7 bn–RM19.0 bn) | RM27,501 |
| Kota Setar | 3.8% | RM16.19 bn (RM14.2 bn–RM18.4 bn) | RM41,210 |
| Yan | 3.5% | RM1.04 bn (RM0.9 bn–RM1.2 bn) | RM13,592 |
| Kubang Pasu | 3.4% | RM5.03 bn (RM4.4 bn–RM5.7 bn) | RM18,515 |
| Sik | 3.3% | RM0.79 bn (RM0.7 bn–RM0.9 bn) | RM10,817 |
| Baling | 3.2% | RM2.11 bn (RM1.9 bn–RM2.4 bn) | RM13,581 |
| Padang Terap | 2.9% | RM1.17 bn (RM1.0 bn–RM1.3 bn) | RM16,667 |
| Pendang | 2.9% | RM1.67 bn (RM1.5 bn–RM1.9 bn) | RM15,869 |
| Bandar Baharu | 2.8% | RM0.83 bn (RM0.7 bn–RM0.9 bn) | RM17,810 |
| Pokok Sena | 2.2% | RM1.89 bn (RM1.7 bn–RM2.2 bn) | RM35,978 |
Projection Kedah sector GDP (excluding import duties), constant 2015 prices. Output per extra factory worker: RM80,192 (Kedah manufacturing average, 2024). Malaysia's GDP per person is assumed to grow 3.0% a year. Sources: DOSM; The Vibes (2022); MIDA (2025). Method →
How we chose the model
We tested four models on 161 districts across Malaysia using 2015–2020 data. Each model forecast one state without ever seeing that state's data, and its forecasts were then compared with DOSM's actual figures.
| Model | Error, 1 year | Error, 3 years |
|---|---|---|
| Constant share of each sector (shift-share)Chosen | 1.5% | 2.5% |
| Machine learning (gradient-boosted trees) | 1.6% | 2.7% |
| Momentum (half the past trend) | 1.6% | 3.1% |
| Constant share of state GDP | 2.0% | 3.3% |
Error = median absolute error of district GDP, in per cent. Lower is better.